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Crisis Group

A Ukrainian military convoy pictured through shooting spot of armored personnel carrier (APC), Donetsk region, 24 December, 2014. REUTERS

The Ukraine Crisis: Risks of Renewed Military Conflict after Minsk II

A second agreement in Minsk on 12 February produced a ceasefire that for now is mostly holding and measures to de-escalate the conflict. Many officials locally and in Kyiv, Moscow and the West, nevertheless, believe war could resume in Ukraine’s east within weeks. If it does, much will depend on the quality of top commanders on both sides. Ukraine’s army is enmeshed in a command crisis the country’s leaders seem unwilling to admit or address. For the separatist rebels, the command and control Moscow provides could give them the advantage in any new fighting. Meanwhile, President Petro Poroshenko faces criticism from his Western allies about the slow pace of reform, opposition from the political establishment as he tries to pass legislation required by the Minsk agreement and a steady stream of complaints from Donetsk and Moscow that the measures do not go far enough.

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The Ukraine Crisis and European Stability

The crisis in Ukraine presents one of the gravest threats to global order in the past quarter century. Military action by Russia against Ukraine is a breach of international law and pits Moscow directly against Western powers. The West needs to respond with a new, overarching strategy. In this statement, Crisis Group sets out a 10-point plan of action and the philosophy behind such renewed engagement with Russia.

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A Western Strategy for Ukraine




Michael Zumot (Brussels): +32 (0) 2 290 57 62

Nadja Nolting (Brussels): +32 (0) 2 536 00 71

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The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental  organisation covering over 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

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