New York Times 2016 Election Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html?ref=politics
Encuesta interactiva del New York Times con los últimos datos sobre las carrera presidencial en EEUU, con especial énfasis en los denominados swing states.
2016 Election Polls
National Polling Average
Hillary Clinton
42%
Donald J. Trump
40%
| Polls | Dates | Type, Respondents | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner New | 7/13 - 7/18 |
Live Phone900
|
43 | 40 | Clinton +3 |
| YouGov/Economist New | 7/15 - 7/17 |
Online1,056
|
40 | 37 | Clinton +3 |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey New | 7/11 - 7/17 |
Online9,436
|
46 | 45 | Clinton +1 |
| Morning Consult | 7/14 - 7/16 |
Online2,002
|
41 | 39 | Clinton +2 |
| Monmouth University | 7/14 - 7/16 |
Live Phone805
|
43 | 40 | Clinton +3 |
The New York Times polling averages use all polls currently listed in The Huffington Post's polling database. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages, and polls with partisan sponsors are excluded. Here’s how different types of polls work.
We are working to add data for third-party candidates. Differences in how pollsters ask about third-party candidates can make direct comparisons among polls problematic.
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State Polling Averages
The candidates will focus on several swing states. Below are the averages in crucial states with a new poll in the past month and more than one poll in 2016. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
| State | Average Margin | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Trump +0.8 | 11 |
| Florida | Clinton +1.3 | 29 |
| Iowa | Clinton +1.8 | 6 |
| Ohio | Clinton +1.9 | 18 |
| North Carolina | Clinton +2.4 | 15 |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton +2.9 | 20 |
| New Hampshire | Clinton +3.0 | 4 |
| Virginia | Clinton +4.5 | 13 |
| Michigan | Clinton +4.8 | 16 |
| Wisconsin | Clinton +6.9 | 10 |
| Strong Democratic states Won by Obama in 2012 by at least 10 percentage points | 191 | |
| Strong Republican states Won by Romney in 2012 by at least 10 percentage points | 154 | |
| Swing states without recent polling Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri and Nevada | 51 | |
Arizona
Trump +0.8
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling/Americans United for Change | 6/22 - 6/23 | 40 | 44 | Trump +4 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 6/20 | 47 | 42 | Clinton +5 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 6/11 - 6/20 | 43 | 48 | Trump +5 |
Florida
Clinton +1.3
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/11 | 44 | 37 | Clinton +7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6/30 - 7/11 | 39 | 42 | Trump +3 |
| JMC Analytics and Polling | 7/9 - 7/10 | 42 | 47 | Trump +5 |
Iowa
Clinton +1.8
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS/YouGov | 7/13 - 7/15 | 39 | 40 | Trump +1 |
| Monmouth University | 7/8 - 7/11 | 42 | 44 | Trump +2 |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/10 | 42 | 39 | Clinton +3 |
Ohio
Clinton +1.9
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS/YouGov | 7/13 - 7/15 | 44 | 40 | Clinton +4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 6/30 - 7/11 | 41 | 41 | Even |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/10 | 39 | 39 | Even |
North Carolina
Clinton +2.4
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/11 | 44 | 38 | Clinton +6 |
| CBS/YouGov | 6/21 - 6/24 | 44 | 42 | Clinton +2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 6/20 - 6/21 | 43 | 43 | Even |
Pennsylvania
Clinton +2.9
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 6/30 - 7/11 | 41 | 43 | Trump +2 |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/10 | 45 | 36 | Clinton +9 |
| Public Policy Polling/Americans United for Change | 6/22 - 6/23 | 46 | 42 | Clinton +4 |
New Hampshire
Clinton +3.0
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 6/24 - 6/28 | 47 | 42 | Clinton +5 |
| Public Policy Polling/Americans United for Change | 6/22 - 6/23 | 43 | 39 | Clinton +4 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 6/11 - 6/20 | 44 | 43 | Clinton +1 |
Virginia
Clinton +4.5
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | 7/9 - 7/12 | 44 | 37 | Clinton +7 |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 7/5 - 7/11 | 44 | 35 | Clinton +9 |
| Hampton University | 7/6 - 7/10 | 39 | 39 | Even |
Michigan
Clinton +4.8
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS/YouGov | 7/13 - 7/15 | 42 | 39 | Clinton +3 |
| Marketing Resource Group New | 7/11 - 7/15 | 34 | 29 | Clinton +5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 7/7 - 7/8 | 48 | 41 | Clinton +7 |
Wisconsin
Clinton +6.9
| Polls | Dates | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Law School | 7/7 - 7/10 | 45 | 41 | Clinton +4 |
| CBS/YouGov | 6/21 - 6/24 | 41 | 36 | Clinton +5 |
| Public Policy Polling/Americans United for Change | 6/22 - 6/23 | 47 | 39 | Clinton +8 |
How Different Polls Work
Pollsters have several methods to choose from when conducting a poll. Regardless of method, it's hard to get a representative sample of the population to answer survey questions, so most polls weight their response data to match the expected composition of the electorate.
Live Telephone Polls An interviewer asks questions of a respondent by telephone. Most telephone polls conducted by live interviewers include both landlines and cellphones. Currently, the CDC estimates that about half of U.S. households do not have a landline.
Online Polls Most online polls are based on panels of self-selected respondents. Internet access is not yet evenly distributed across socioeconomic and demographic groups.
Interactive Voice Response Polls Interactive voice response (I.V.R.) polls (also known as “robo-polls” or “automated polls”) employ an automated, recorded voice to call respondents who are asked to answer questions by punching telephone keys. Anyone who can answer the phone and hit the buttons can be counted in the survey. Most I.V.R. polls call only landlines.
Note: Charts use polls from before Jan. 1, 2016, to start drawing average lines on that date.
Polling data from the Huffington Post Pollster API.
By Wilson Andrews and Josh Katz