The springtime political upheaval in Armenia stunned neighbouring governments – not least that of Azerbaijan. Since 23 April, when mass demonstrations impelled Armenia’s long-time leader Serzh Sargsyan to resign, the Azerbaijani authorities have struggled to understand the implications for the three-decade-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, wants to see a step-by-step formula for resolving the conflict, with the return of some lands as negotiations continue, so as to produce the first tangible results since the 1994 ceasefire and build confidence in the peace process. It thought that the surprise political transition in Armenia might bring a way out of the impasse. But this initial optimism has faded. Azerbaijan now views the “velvet revolution” as a double-edged sword: it got rid of Sargsyan, but it also brought to power leaders entirely unknown to Baku whose statements on Nagorno-Karabakh, at least for the time being, sound harder-line.
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